A Fantastic Festival

A Festival that promised plenty, and delivered in style. The main four championship events all produced exciting races as well as decisive and deserving winners. Hurricane Fly laid to rest the theory that he wouldn’t get up the hill and but for injury, it could well have been his third win at the meeting. The Festival hasn’t always been kind to Sizing Europe, he had the 2008 Champion Hurdle at his mercy before going wrong after two out but his last two visits have been much more rewarding as he added the Champion Chase to his 2010 Arkle win. Much of the focus of that race centred on Master Minded and Big Zeb but Sizing Europe showed all the hallmarks of a top-class two-mile chaser, going with bags of enthusiasm close up and jumping superbly.

A pedestrian pace couldn’t prevent the two best horses coming to the fore in the World Hurdle and despite Ruby Walsh dropping his whip, the reigning champion Big Buck’s proved too strong for the young pretender Grands Crus. A rematch at Aintree will be worth seeing but surely of more interest would be Big Buck’s dropping to two and a half miles to take on the likes of Peddlers Cross and Solwhit over two and a half miles. Looking beyond that, am I the only one that thinks Big Buck’s would be a natural for the Ascot Gold Cup? We know he isn’t reliant on testing ground, he has stamina in abundance but equally is certainly no plodder and there is nothing at all among the Flat stayers who would have anything like his natural ability. If Rite Of Passage can come from the Festival to win a Gold Cup, then I’m sure Big Buck’s can. Andy Stewart comes across as a sporting man and surely has very little to lose by having a crack. Though yet to have a Flat runner, I believe Paul Nicholls now has a dual-purpose licence. Come on guys, you know it makes sense. The campaign starts here!

It’s possible that Big Buck’s could switch back to chasing, but even if he does, it’s hard to imagine next year’s Gold Cup being any more thrilling than Friday’s renewal. The run to the third last was one of those moments in sport that make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up and was captured perfectly by Richard Hoiles, ‘Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman – A Who’s Who of Gold Cup history.’ One by one the old guard dropped away to be overtaken by Long Run who has confirmed he is top dog amongst the staying ranks now. Sam Waley-Cohen has had to endure plenty of criticism, some of it from me, and not all of it deserved, but no-one can deny now that he’s fully entitled to continue his association with Long Run. His graciousness in victory, without the need for ‘I told you so’s’ is a lesson some others in the sport could learn from.

Kauto Star and Denman both vindicated Paul Nicholls’ decision to keep them on the go rather than retire them and it’s likely they will run again. I have to say were either of them mine, the temptation would be there for them to bow out now, very close to the top. Denman will surely prove vulnerable to fresher legs in the Hennessy again, and victory for Kauto Star at either Punchestown in May or Down Royal in November will add little to his legacy.

Whilst Paul Nicholls deserves plenty of credit for bringing them out for one last stand, the training performance of the week should go to Jonjo O’Neill for what he managed with Get Me Out Of Here. Okay the horse was narrowly beaten in the closest finish of the week, but to get him back in the condition he was in considering how he’d performed earlier in the season was nothing short of wondrous. He was transformed from the hard-pulling, weak-finishing horse that needed kidding home to find plenty up the hill, going down only on the nod. A fine advert for the use of a tongue strap and a breathing operation.

Those who have read this blog before will know I was quite critical of the way that the Festival dominates the jumps season and how horses have missed large parts of it to be kept fresh. Looking at how those horses got on raises the question again as to whether those that hadn’t run since the turn of the year gained any advantage. Over the four days, of 487 declared horses 60 of them hadn’t run (including Flat races and point-to-points) since 31^st December (12.3%). Of the 92 places available from the 27 races, 9 filled one of those positions (9.8%). I’m sure those with a greater knowledge of statistics could pick holes in such methodology, but to me this suggests there was very little to be gained from keeping horses fresh. Hopefully it will prove just a fad rather than a trend.

The final thing I wanted to comment on refers to the non-runner no bet policy offered in the weeks leading up to the race by many bookmakers. I’ve come round to thinking that it’s a good idea to get involved in the handicaps where 10/1 the field races when they are priced up at the entry stage are inevitably 5/1 the field at declaration time. If you are well on top of the jumps form (I’m not) then there’s certainly value to be had by finding those that will shorten dramatically, but in the graded races, I’m just not sure it’s worthwhile. Throughout the week, there was excellent value to be had at best morning prices, with bookmakers desperate to compete for business. Horses like Cue Card and Time For Rupert which had been around the 9/4 mark for most of the six weeks before Cheltenham were suddenly knocked out to 3/1, there were even bigger prices about for horses like Master Minded and Grands Crus compared to what they had been at the non-runner no bet stage. The vast majority of the races were priced at less than 0.5% a runner and in many cases the books were overbroke.

Unsurprisingly this caused some issue with some people not being able to have as much as they wanted on these horses, but given that the prices were available in the shops in most cases, I think the majority of people were probably accommodated to satisfactory levels. These offers are well worth bearing in mind in twelve months time when mulling over whether to take short odds on your banker at the non-runner no bet stage.

A Rare Delicacy at 3.35 in the Morning

Maybe it’s because I’ve spent most of the winter watching 0-60 handicaps worth less than £2,000 to the winner or maybe it’s because she really is very, very good, have a look at the video of her in action to see for yourselves, but I haven’t looked forward to seeing a horse in action as much as I am looking forward to seeing Black Caviar on Saturday morning for a long time.

Hopefully most of you are up to speed with her, but if not, I’ll give a quick synopsis of her career so far. She’s won all of her nine starts, including four Group 2s and two Group 1s. The latest of those is the Lightning Stakes at Flemington over 5f last month. The video will do that run more justice than I’ll ever manage with my vocabulary, but we’re simply not used to seeing top-class sprint races won in such fashion, duck-egg coups around Southwell by the likes of Michael Wigham yes, but not top-class sprints.

Black Caviar is bidding to create history in the Newmarket handicap, no mare in the last hundred years has carried more than the 58 kilograms that she is burdened in the race, whilst she is also bidding to break the record for an unbeaten start to a career in Australia. Her Lightning Stakes win equalled the record of nine, joining Mollison, Rancher, Eye Liner and the 1880 Melbourne Cup winner Grand Flaneur. The last-named retired unbeaten but Black Caviar is strongly fancy to claim the record outright. Despite the race being a handicap, Black Caviar is likely to start around the 1/3 mark. The good news is that the race will be shown live on ATR at 3.35am Saturday morning UK time, so make sure you set the Sky+ folks.

Sadly it seems Black Caviar is unlikely to head over to the UK anytime soon. Considering she’s already rated higher than the likes of Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast and Starspangledbanner, and will probably post another career-best on Saturday, it’s difficult to think that an appearance at Royal Ascot would be anything other than a procession. Still Flat racing is very much a global sport these days and hopefully another victory this weekend can help her to get the wider recognition she deserves. It won’t be for lack of trying from me anyway.

Once we get this weekend out of the way it is virtually upon us. You’ll see back in one of my older blogs that I’m no fan of how the entire jumps season seems to revolve around the Festival these days, but now it’s so close I’m certainly looking forward to it. I’ve got a mixed-bag of ante-post vouchers, nice prices on For Non Stop in the Coral Cup and something I’d never heard of in the Fred Winter until I went out for a drink with some friends and colleagues last Monday. Although a trixie involving Big Buck’s at 4/7 and a less-than-sparkling Imperial Commander (if you believe the whispers coming from the preview nights) hardly has the layer trembling at present. Hopefully the NR No Bet guarantee will become Best Odds Guaranteed once he’s got there safely, but I won’t hold my breath.

Good luck to all over the next week and whilst the punting is always going to be vital to most of us, try and remember whilst your doing your brains why we all love this sport. We’re all looking to spot the next Black Caviar before anyone else.

Our Cheltenham Obsession Makes For A Disjointed Season

I used to love the Festival as much as the next man, more so probably. When it was cancelled in 2001 because of Foot and Mouth, it was basically akin to telling a seven-year-old on Christmas Eve that Christmas had been cancelled. What’s changed? Well firstly because of my job (I’m a Flat handicapper and reporter at Timeform), I spend far more time on Flat racing and find that a more fascinating discipline. But the main problem is that National Hunt racing has an obsession with the Festival that is to the detriment of the rest of the season.

This season, big pre-Christmas targets like the Hennessy are being turned into Gold Cup trials fully four months before the big day. Both Diamond Harry and Denman, first and third in this season’s renewal will go straight to the Gold Cup, in fact of the first six home at Newbury that day, only the fourth, The Tother One has been seen subsequently. Races like the Lexus and Cotswold Chase have come and gone, as will the AON and Irish Hennessy this weekend and all have been poorer for the absence of such names. It’s not like this is unique problem with staying chasers. No sooner had Menorah confirmed himself as a serious Champion Hurdle contender with wins in the Greatwood and International Hurdles at Cheltenham’s big winter meetings, the cotton wool was being applied and races like the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial, Welsh Champion Hurdle and Kingwell were all off the agenda with connections favouring a trip straight back to Cheltenham.

Big Buck’s’ (I’ve no idea if that is grammatically correct!) season has been perhaps the most frustrating. Two canters around Newbury and victories over Duc de Regniere and Lough Derg have told us little about him. How good a race could the Cleeve have been had Big Buck’s attempted to concede his Grade 1 penalty to Grands Crus?

With so many of the contenders wrapped up in cotton wool it’s giving us little new to talk about, forums are rehashing the same tired arguments and we're still six weeks from getting any answers. Features in pullouts in the media tell us that these horses are bouncing and better than ever. Run the damn things then! Sadly I don’t really have a solution to a problem that has crept up on us over the last few seasons. Whilst the top horses aren’t owned by billionaire Arabs, the might of a handful of big stables fighting out for virtually all the big prizes means that most of the top horses are owned by the same faces, none of whom are short of a few bob, and prize money isn’t a factor at this level. Experiments like the Betfair Million and the Order Of Merit had only minor short term success, in fact, despite it’s good intentions, the Order Of Merit in reality became more an Order of Toughness and Durability.

I don’t want this to be a tired and predictable ‘Jump racing is boring, Flat racing is great’ piece as it’s certainly not the way I see racing, but I do think Flat racing currently enjoys an advantage in the way it’s season pans out. I’m doing my best here not to use that word ‘narrative.’ Throughout the turf season there is the build up to the Guineas, the Guineas itself, quickly onto Derby Trials and then the Derby, Royal Ascot, The July Meeting, Glorious Goodwood, York , the St Leger and abroad we have the Arc and Breeders’ Cup meetings. Of course too, in 2011, comes the revamped Champions’ Day meeting. In between all those dates there’s a plethora of busy weekends that feature competitive and high quality big-field handicaps and pattern races.

I remain with an open mind as to how the new Champions Day is going to pan out. I certainly can’t say I am worried about the long term future of the breed because of the switch of a ten-furlong Group 1 race to a track with a bend, equally the Middle Park on the same card as the Dewhurst doesn’t strike me as an unsurmountable issue. I just hope that we don’t end up with a situation where there is an attempt to oversignify events from that weekend. The meeting won’t be any less of a success should the winner of either the QEII or Champion Stakes be deemed inferior to that of say, the Sussex or Juddmonte International winner.

Still, no sooner will we have Cheltenham behind us that we can look forward to the Lincoln for which the entries came out today. I like having a go at these races ante-post nowadays as so few unexposed, improving types get in and it’s pretty easy to work out where the cut off point is likely to come. I may post a few thoughts once we see what the weights are.